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The following UserGuide explains each section of our daily publication in finer detail. It describes the information being communicated in that section, and offers illustrations of how our current subscribers put that information to use:
OVERVIEW
The Overview is the initial paragraph at the top of each daily letter. It offers a summary of the outlooks for that day, week or month.
The first sentence of the Overview highlights any outstanding risk/reward trading opportunities or major areas of price exposure if they exist. The expected trading ranges and price levels of note for each market follow.
THE CHART
The bar chart reveals the first crucial reference point for the trader - where the average price of recently accumulated positions is located in relation to current price.
The charts are posted for each day (weekly charts on Mondays). It is a standard bar chart - High, Low and Close - based on a 24hr trading day ending at 4:00PM New York time. Between each bar is what is referred to in the text as the momentum dot. The formula is simply the average of the high, low and close for the last three time periods.
Since this calculation represents all the extremes of recent trade, it is a reasonable approximation of the average price of recently acquired positions in that time frame. Where this average price lies in relation to actual price is a valuable piece of information. An average price at the bottom of a price range implies greater upside risk, as it reveals shorts that are experiencing losses and must buy weakness; alternately, a high average price implies downside risk as it reveals longs with losing positions that must sell on a rebound. A middling average price shows a balanced and more neutral market.
RESISTANCE/SUPPORT LEVELS AND PROJECTED RANGE
The Support and Resistance levels show where the price levels of importance are and - just as crucially - where they are not.
The support and resistance levels are derived from calculations based on the current rate of movement of price and the current rate of movement of the momentum dot (i.e., average price) for each time frame. Levels are divided between daily and weekly/monthly time horizons. Levels that show up in both the short and longer time frames are seen of greater relevance. Large gaps between levels indicate areas of potential rapid price movement.
Above the commentary, the projected ranges for that day and week are displayed. These ranges represent the most likely extremes for those time periods. If this projected range is broken during the course of trading, the next higher resistance level or lower support level would be the logical target.
COMMENTARY
The purpose of the commentary section is to describe the directional bias in the market, highlight any unusual aspects to the support/resistance setup, and to express the level of certainty behind any particular outlook.
The commentary is divided into Weekly and Daily sections to address the concerns of both the short term and intermediate term trader. There is a systematic structure to the text. The first word of each comment is a simple description of the current trend in momentum - bullish, bearish or neutral. The text then outlines the bias of the setup defined by the support/resistance levels, and points out what price level will change the current trend of that market. If specific special situations are present - for example, large gaps in price risk or longer term levels exerting a disproportionate influence on the short term outlook - they are noted. The text section concludes with the projected range for that time period.
STRATEGY SECTION
The primary function of the Strategy Section is to summarize all the previous analysis into the commonly understood language of price and position.
This is not a closed, "black box" system and there is no single right trade as a result of the analysis. The support/resistance setups, the commentary and the overall risk perspective can be utilized in any number of ways that fit a particular traders time horizon and perspective on the market.
The general purpose of the strategy is to concisely summarize the analysis into the language of price and position. The Strategy Section communicates the directional risk of the outlook (either long, short or flat); the conviction of the analysis (positions are divided into 50% or 100% increments); and the price level that changes the current directional bias (the "stop" price) into a single sentence.
Our principle guideline in constructing Position Trades are to look for what we refer to as "Multiple-factor Rewards" - that is, trades with reward-to-risk ratios of 2:1 or greater. By clearly quantifying risk, we can identify current market opportunities that offer the reward multiple we are seeking. These trades are generally set in the same direction as the daily or weekly momentum trends, although that is not a necessary condition. The typical position assumes a 3-5 day time horizon. It can extend as long as 3-4 weeks; it may last only a day. After each position strategy, a day trade strategy is also noted utilizing the key levels for that day only.
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