Q2 Outlooks - April 2012

FX OVERVIEW: The USDJPY rally leaves a bullish setup for Q2, headed for yearly downtrend at 86.01/51. The buy level for now is (deep) monthly uptrend for April at 79.67/66, an area that will rise during Q2. EURJPY has a widespread Q2 setup from 112.27 down to 100.31. Its April uptrend is 104.84/08. GBP turned monthly trend bullish (1.5775) and has a positive Q2 setup above 1.5905, likely points toward yearly level at 1.6315. EUR has a tricky setup to start that initially pivots off the Q2 downtrend at 1.3365/1.3425. Both CAD and AUD have potential reversal setups – USDCAD above .9981/1.0017 (to 1.0385); AUD under 1.0320/10 (to .9613).(continued in subscribers area)

STOCK/BOND OVERVIEW: Quarterly trend in Treasuries managed to stay officially bullish. But the March backup leaves neutral setups to start Q2: from 2.93 back to 3.495/538 in bonds, 1.875/86 to 2.37/48 in 10s, .855 to 1.23/308 in 5s, and .195/.168 to .375 in 2s. Between there, bearish-leaning monthly trend zones at 3.185/13, 2.085/008, .945/.92 and .29/.28 provide sell structure in April, and are expected to force a test of the Q2 support levels early on. In stocks, quarterly trend is neutral, with widespread setup from 1442.95 to 1255.68/1252.46. The key inside there is bullish monthly trend at 1347.66 for April (and rising). Expecting a two-way trade in Q2.(continued in subscribers area)